The Rock & Roll Globe Grammy Forecast 2024
Looking at who will win and who should win at this year’s award ceremony
2023 was a year in which Taylor Swift couldn’t lose.
But that streak will be tested at the Grammy Awards – a stage on which she hasn’t been as perfect as she has in other arenas. In fact, she’s barely reached what baseball fans call the Mendoza Line, with 12 trophies to show for her 52 nominations.
Not saying that Tay’s going into battle with no ammo, but she’s going to have to go head-to-head with some formidable opponents – namely Miley Cyrus and SZA – in the major categories at this year’s ceremony. Miley has actually emerged as the favorite for Song of the Year and Record of the Year with “Flowers,” an insidiously ubiquitous slice of pure ear candy that lingered at the top of the charts for over two months last summer and fall.
Album of the Year
Grammy watchers usually consider the Album of the Year category to be the ceremony’s most prestigious, and there’s a tradition of handing the award to the most grizzled nominee – or at least the one who’s the closest in age to the average voter. For better or worse, this year, that would mean nodding to World Music Radio by Jon Batiste, who just won the award in 2021 for We Are. While that doesn’t rule him out, it does knock his chances down a peg or two. While boygenius’s The Record could well be the best of the lot, unfamiliarity will work against the trio, who just announced their hiatus. Lana del Rey and Janelle Monae are battling the opposite battle: Both have earned plenty of well-deserved acclaim, but have yet to really gain traction among mainstream voters (for the record, both are four-star works).
That leaves the pop stars to duke it out for the top spot. Miley’s Endless Summer Vacation is a bit thin once you get past “Flowers” and two or three other cuts, so she’ll have to wait another year. Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts is a visceral reminder of what pop music is meant to be – immediate and in-your-face. But Taylor Swift’s Midnights lends itself to deeper dives, and more dissection. Is that better or worse? It depends what you’re looking for, and that could earn her a fourth Album of the Year win.
Should win: Olivia Rodrigo – Guts
Will win: Taylor Swift – Midnights
Record of the Year
There aren’t any toss-off songs in this category, which goes to the performer, but the win chances are slim for Victoria Monet, boygenius, Jon Batiste and SZA. Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers” was a dominant force on the charts, which Grammy voters love. Taylor Swift, on the other hand, created a song of lasting permanence for fans with “Anti-Hero,” which isn’t as big a deal to the Academy. That leaves the door wide open for Billie Eilish and her breathless Barbie theme “What Was I Made For?,” which was guaranteed to elicit tears at the end of the film, and has a good chance of doing so on its own terms.
Should win: Billie Eilish: “What Was I Made For?”
Will win: Billie Eilish: “What Was I Made For?”
VIDEO: Billie Eilish “What Was I Made For?”
Song of the Year
This is a songwriting category, and in a rare aligning of the stars, the performers in question all penned the songs that are up for grabs. Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero,” Olivia Rodrigo’s “Guts” and Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers” could cancel each other out to hand the win to the deserving SZA.
Should win: SZA: “Kill Bill”
Will win: Billie Eilish: “What Was I Made For?”
Best New Artist
Unlike many previous years, there aren’t any real embarrassments vying for the top spot in this category. Sure, it’s heavy on seasoned vets who haven’t really been “new artists” for ages (Victoria Monet is a decade into her career by now), but everyone is perfectly likeable, with a number of folks who could actually be around a decade from now. While Ice Spice and Jelly Roll both have “flavor of the month” stamped all over them, The War And Treaty have the gravitas to take this home – and the talent to make the choice a wise one.
Will win: The War And Treaty
Should win: The War And Treaty
VIDEO: The War And Treaty “That’s How Love Is Made”
Best Rap Song
Drake, who’s always complaining about the lack of respect he gets at the Grammys, could break that streak this year with “Rich Flex,” despite the fact that the underrated Killer Mike deserves the hardware for “Scientists and Engineers.”
Will win: Drake and 21 Savage – “Rich Flex”
Should win: Killer Mike – “Scientists and Engineers”
Best R & B Performance
This is the best shot for the top women in the field to take home some hardware. While the ever-annoying Chris Brown is nominated, as is jazz-soul vet Robert Glasper, the race seems evenly split between “ICU” by Coco Jones, “How Does It Make You Feel” by Victoria Monét and “Kill Bill” by SZA.
Will win: “Kill Bill” by SZA
Should win: “Kill Bill” by SZA
Best Rock Album
Give the voters credit for mixing things up on the nominees list this time around, with a blend of something old, something new and something just plain odd. Metallica is always a safe bet as long as Jethro Tull isn’t in the running, but it’s hard to overlook the power of Paramore’s This Is Why – not to mention the impossible-to-escape nature of Foo Fighters.
Will win: Metallica – 72 Seasons
Should win: Paramore – This Is Why
Best Rock Performance
The junk drawer of the rock nods, this category brings together a slew of nominees that cry out “one of things is not like the other. The standout, in every way, is the undeniable “Not Strong Enough” by one-and-done supergroup boygenius – but standing out is usually a negative for conservative Grammy voters. Figure they’ll take the safe route with Foo Fighters’ “Rescued” instead.”
Will win: Foo Fighters – “Rescued”
Should win: boygenius – “Not Strong Enough”
VIDEO: boygenius “Not Strong Enough”
Best Rock Song
The Rolling Stones were ubiquitous after the release of their zillionth album, Hackney Diamonds, but Grammy voters only offered up one nomination – for “Angry,” in this oddly-constructed category. Since Olivia Rodrigo (nominated for “Vampire”) and boygenius (a nod for “Not Strong Enough”) could cancel each other out, the geezers could come away with a win.
Will win: Rolling Stones – “Angry”
Should Win: boygenius – “Not Strong Enough”
Best Metal Performance
Grammy voters have a better grip on “metal” than ever, and they’ve brought together a reasonably interesting group of nominees for 2024. As for the results, we’ll see. The year’s Best Metal Performance noms include Metallica’s “72 Seasons,” Ghost’s “Phantom of the Opera” and “Spiritbox’s Jaded.” It’s safe to say that voters will stick to sweatin’ to the oldies with the classic nominee.
Will win: Metallica – “72 Seasons”
Should win: Ghost – “Phantom of the Opera”
AUDIO: Ghost “Phantom of the Opera”
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